Washington, D.C. — Democrats hold an 11-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterm election season, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday.
The survey found 50% of respondents said they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 39% backing the Republican nominee. Another 11% said they remain undecided.
The results suggest Democrats may be gaining momentum as Republicans attempt to defend narrow majorities in Congress during President Donald Trump’s second term. Pollsters also found voters remain sharply divided politically, with 35% identifying as independents, 30% as Democrats, and 29% as Republicans.
The poll reflects growing challenges for Republicans following months of political controversy surrounding the administration’s handling of the economy, immigration, and military actions involving Iran. Democrats have also intensified organizing efforts, launching major voter registration campaigns earlier this year aimed at boosting turnout ahead of November.
Despite the polling deficit, Republicans continue to maintain significant fundraising advantages. As of February, the GOP’s congressional campaign committees reportedly held more cash on hand than Democratic counterparts.
Trump has remained deeply involved in Republican primaries nationwide, aggressively backing candidates aligned with his political agenda while targeting incumbents viewed as disloyal. Analysts say the president’s influence could help energize Republican turnout but may also alienate moderate and independent voters in competitive districts.
The New York Times/Siena survey was conducted May 11-15 among 1,507 registered voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
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