WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new national poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment ahead of the midterm elections.
The Emerson College Polling survey found that 50% of likely voters would support a Democratic candidate for Congress, compared to 40% backing a Republican. Another 10% of respondents said they remain undecided. The margin widened from last month, when Democrats held a 7-point lead.
Polling trends indicate Democratic support has gradually increased since late 2025, rising from the mid-40% range to 50% in the latest survey. Republican support has remained relatively stable but dipped slightly in recent weeks.
According to Emerson’s Spencer Kimball, the Democratic advantage is driven by stronger backing among Hispanic voters, women, and independents. The poll found Democrats lead by 35 points among Hispanic voters, 21 points among women, and 19 points among independents.
The findings come as political dynamics shift following debates over the economy, foreign policy, and recent military actions. Democrats are increasingly optimistic about retaking control of the House, where only a few seats would need to flip, while the Senate map remains more challenging.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted April 24–26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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