New York, New York — Prediction market Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding he likely engaged in insider trading by betting on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
Kalshi said its compliance department found reasonable cause to believe Santos violated trading rules by wagering on an outcome he personally controlled. He earned $17,839 from the trades and was assessed a $71,356 penalty in addition to the lifetime ban.
Santos had repeatedly suggested publicly that he planned to attend the address. Kalshi said he placed large bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 against his attendance while making statements that influenced the contract’s price. Shortly after Trump’s speech began, Santos announced on X that he had been delayed at an airport.
In March, Santos acknowledged that some traders lost money while others unexpectedly profited, describing the episode as evidence of how “fragile” prediction markets can be.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission separately penalized Santos in July over alleged manipulative trading connected to the same wagers.
Santos was expelled from Congress in 2023 and later pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft. He served 84 days of a seven-year prison sentence before Trump commuted his sentence in 2025.
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