WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal authorities are investigating whether former Rep. George Santos engaged in improper trading activity by allegedly placing a wager on a prediction market concerning his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this year.
According to multiple reports, Santos allegedly placed a bet on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, regarding whether he would attend Trump’s February address to Congress. The investigation reportedly began after Kalshi flagged the trade to federal regulators due to concerns that Santos may have possessed unique knowledge about the outcome of the event.
Santos had publicly indicated on social media that he planned to attend the speech before later informing followers that travel complications prevented him from making the trip. Authorities are now examining whether any wagers were placed using nonpublic information that could have provided an unfair advantage in the market.
The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have not publicly commented on the investigation. NPR first reported the probe, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.
When asked whether he maintained a Kalshi account, Santos declined to provide a direct answer. In a social media post, he dismissed the reports and said he does not engage with what he described as “rag reporting.”
The investigation comes amid increased scrutiny of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Lawmakers and regulators have raised concerns about potential insider trading involving political events, military actions, and election-related markets.
Santos was expelled from Congress in 2023 following an ethics investigation and later pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identity theft. He was sentenced to prison in 2025 before receiving a commutation from President Trump later that year.
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