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Washington, D.C. — Climate and weather experts are warning that staffing reductions and budget cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could weaken the accuracy of federal weather forecasting as the United States enters hurricane season and faces another summer of extreme heat.

The concerns come as NOAA expands use of artificial intelligence-powered weather forecasting models designed to improve forecasting speed and efficiency. Critics argue the technology depends heavily on massive amounts of reliable weather and climate data, while the Trump administration is simultaneously reducing parts of NOAA’s climate research and data collection operations.

Former NOAA officials and climate researchers say cuts affecting weather balloon launches, satellite operations, ocean buoy systems, and climate analysis programs could reduce the quality of information feeding federal forecast models. Some scientists also warn that AI-based weather systems may struggle to accurately predict unprecedented extreme weather events intensified by climate change because the models rely partly on historical weather patterns.

NOAA officials dispute claims that critical data collection is collapsing, saying the agency continues gathering extensive information through satellites, ocean sensors, weather balloons, and land-based systems. The agency also emphasized that AI forecasting tools are supplementing—not replacing—traditional physics-based forecast models.

Researchers note that conventional weather models still outperform some AI systems during unusual or record-breaking events, including major blizzards and extreme storms. Critics fear reduced funding for climate research and staffing shortages could slow future forecasting improvements and disaster preparedness efforts.

The debate arrives as forecasters predict another active Atlantic hurricane season and the possible development of a “super El Niño” weather pattern capable of driving record temperatures globally.

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