WASHINGTON, D.C. — Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook said Sunday that Democrats retaking the House has looked like a “done deal” for some time and that winning control of the Senate has become “very realistic,” though his comments represent an election analyst’s assessment rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Cook said he expects Democrats could gain roughly 20 House seats and four or five Senate seats. He pointed to competitive Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire and Minnesota, with Kansas potentially joining that group.
Cook attributed the changing environment to a familiar midterm pattern: supporters of the president’s party becoming less motivated while opposition voters turn out more heavily and independents move away from the governing party. He described the current environment as a “red undertow” rather than a uniform Democratic wave.
Recent polling provides context for that assessment. A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 17-20 found President Donald Trump’s approval at 32%, while Democrats held an eight-point advantage over Republicans when respondents were asked which party they would support for Congress.
Decision Desk HQ’s separate forecasting model has also recently treated control of both chambers as competitive, with its Senate model describing the contest as essentially even.
Cook emphasized that individual races remain uneven and that candidate quality, turnout and local issues can still alter results before Election Day.
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