WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, another sign that the battlefield for control of the chamber has shifted significantly in the final weeks before the midterm elections.
Cook’s updated ratings show Democrats favored in 208 races rated Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, compared with 205 seats in the equivalent Republican categories. Another 22 races are rated Toss Up. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure a House majority.
Many of the competitive districts are seats President Donald Trump carried in 2024. Cook’s September Battleground District Project found Democrats leading Republicans 49% to 47% on the generic congressional ballot among 1,052 likely voters across 37 competitive districts. Trump had carried those same districts by about five points collectively in 2024.
Cook attributed much of the movement to dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy and changing political conditions in Republican-held districts.
Republicans still retain important advantages, including significant campaign resources. An NRCC spokesperson dismissed the ratings changes and argued that Republican candidates have stronger organizing and financial operations in competitive districts.
With more than a month remaining, the ratings reflect Cook’s current assessment of competitiveness rather than election results, and several closely contested districts remain unresolved.
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