Austin, Texas — Texas public schools saw a sharp enrollment decline this academic year, raising new questions about school funding, demographic shifts, and the state’s changing education landscape.
A report from Texas 2036 found that roughly 76,000 fewer students enrolled in Texas public schools this year, marking the first non-pandemic decline in nearly four decades. The group projected that public schools could lose about 100,000 students by the end of the decade if current trends continue.
Hispanic students accounted for 81% of the decline, even though they make up about 53% of Texas’ 5.5 million public school students. The report comes after a year of heightened immigration enforcement and rhetoric, though Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told lawmakers, “We cannot tell you the precise cause of this.”
The decline matters because Texas funds public schools based largely on attendance. Fewer students can mean less money for districts, even as fixed costs such as staffing, transportation, and building maintenance remain. Some districts have already cut programs or closed campuses despite an $8.5 billion increase in public education funding last year.
Texas 2036 analyst Carlo Castillo said population growth is no longer translating into school enrollment growth, calling it a structural shift that policymakers will need to address.
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