Austin, Texas — Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in three South Texas congressional districts that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024, according to a new Texas Southern University poll.
The survey found Talarico ahead 50% to 42% in the 15th Congressional District, which Trump won by 18 points. Talarico led 51% to 41% in the 28th District and 53% to 42% in the 34th, both of which Trump carried by roughly 10 points.
The poll surveyed likely November voters from Aug. 18-22. Researchers questioned 700 voters each in the 15th and 34th districts, with margins of error of 3.7 percentage points, and 600 voters in the 28th, with a 4-point margin.
The results add to evidence that the normally Republican-leaning Senate contest has become highly competitive. An earlier statewide Texas Southern University poll found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%, although that margin was within the survey’s margin of error.
Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, while Talarico won the Democratic nomination. Recent polling has prompted election analysts to increasingly treat the race as competitive heading toward November.
Sources
- Texas Southern University – Unrated
- Mediaite – MBFC Rating
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