AUSTIN, Texas — Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in another poll suggesting Texas could host one of the nation’s most competitive Senate races this fall.
The Texas Southern University survey found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2% and 6% undecided. The two-point difference falls within the poll’s 2.83-percentage-point margin of error, making the contest statistically tied.
Paxton’s personal ratings present a larger warning sign for Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters viewed him unfavorably, compared with 39% who viewed him favorably. Talarico was viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 47%.
Talarico led among women, younger voters, Black voters, Latino voters and independents. Paxton maintained advantages among men, white voters and Texans 55 or older. He received support from 85% of Republicans, while Talarico secured 97% of Democrats.
The result follows two other recent surveys showing Talarico ahead, including a Fox News poll placing him up three points and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey giving him a five-point advantage. However, Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades, and Republicans expect party voters to consolidate behind Paxton before November.
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