AUSTIN, Texas — Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a new Fox News poll, with dissatisfaction among less firmly MAGA-aligned Republicans helping make the race unexpectedly competitive.
The survey found Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48% among registered Texas voters, a difference within the poll’s three-point margin of error. Talarico received support from 98% of Democrats and 68% of independents, while Paxton drew 89% of Republicans.
The most striking result came from Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement. Twenty-four percent backed Talarico, suggesting Paxton has not fully reunited the party following his bitter primary victory over longtime Sen. John Cornyn.
Character concerns appear to be contributing to that erosion. Fifty-nine percent of all voters, including 36% of Republicans, said they were highly concerned that Paxton lacks the character to serve. By comparison, 47% were similarly concerned that Talarico is too politically extreme.
Paxton has survived impeachment, legal investigations and allegations of misconduct while maintaining strong support among Trump-aligned conservatives. Talarico is attempting to frame the election around affordability, public education and government corruption.
Texas Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994, but multiple recent surveys indicate this race could remain competitive through November.
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