Boulder, Colorado — A new economic study examining President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown found that increased ICE enforcement may have reduced employment opportunities for some U.S.-born workers rather than improving them.
The working paper, authored by University of Colorado Boulder economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox, analyzed immigration enforcement data alongside labor market information from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Researchers found that in areas with heavier immigration enforcement, employment among likely undocumented workers dropped by about 4%, particularly among men in industries dependent on immigrant labor.
The study also found no overall labor market gains for U.S.-born workers. Instead, researchers said some U.S.-born workers — especially men without college degrees working in sectors such as construction — experienced weaker employment prospects in areas with intense ICE activity.
Researchers argued that undocumented workers often fill difficult or lower-paying jobs that complement rather than directly replace native-born workers. The paper suggested industries dependent on immigrant labor may slow hiring or production when enforcement disrupts their workforce.
The Department of Homeland Security disputed the study’s conclusions, saying the administration’s immigration policies improve public safety and benefit businesses and communities.
The paper has not yet undergone peer review but adds to ongoing debate over the economic effects of large-scale immigration enforcement.
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