WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new Cook Political Report analysis finds that the wave of mid-decade congressional redistricting has made the 2026 House map more favorable to Republicans while sharply reducing the number of competitive districts.
Senior elections analyst Dave Wasserman compared the newly drawn boundaries with the maps used in 2024 through Cook’s Partisan Voting Index, which measures each district’s presidential voting lean against the national average.
Under the previous boundaries, Democrats could have reached 235 seats by winning every district rated more Democratic than R+3. Under the new maps, the same political environment would produce about 223 Democratic seats—still a majority, but 12 fewer than under the old lines.
The redistricting fight began after President Donald Trump pressured Republican-led Texas to target five Democratic-held seats. California Democrats retaliated with a map designed to eliminate five Republican seats, while eight other states also adopted new boundaries.
Although both parties pursued partisan gains, Cook’s calculations indicate the combined changes produced a net Republican advantage. The maps also reduced the number of districts between D+5 and R+5 from 87 to 77.
Wasserman found that red-state Democrats and blue-state Republicans were both weakened, leaving fewer crossover districts and a House map less responsive to national voter shifts.
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