Washington, DC — The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least five decades, according to a new analysis released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution, marking a sharp shift tied to stricter immigration policies under President Donald Trump.
Brookings economists estimate net migration ranged from a decline of about 10,000 people to as many as 295,000 in 2025, reversing long-standing trends of population growth driven by immigration. The report attributes the drop to expanded border closures, reductions in temporary visa programs, and the suspension of most humanitarian and refugee admissions during Trump’s second term.
The analysis estimates between 310,000 and 315,000 removals occurred in 2025, only modestly higher than 2024 totals. Economists also estimate roughly 300,000 deportations, while the Department of Homeland Security has said 1.9 million undocumented immigrants have “voluntarily self-deported” since January 2025. Brookings researchers note that official migration figures will not be finalized until later this year due to paused visa issuance data from the State Department.
Economists warned the decline could have measurable economic consequences. Brookings estimates reduced immigration could lower consumer spending by $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026, particularly affecting businesses reliant on immigrant labor and customers. Slower workforce growth could also weigh on employment gains and overall GDP.
The findings differ from a recent Congressional Budget Office estimate projecting net migration closer to 400,000, highlighting ongoing uncertainty surrounding immigration data and enforcement outcomes.
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