WASHINGTON, D.C. — Democrats hold an 11-point advantage over Republicans in a new national poll, although broader polling averages show a considerably closer contest for control of Congress.
The Emerson College Polling survey found 53% of likely voters supporting a generic Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 42% backing a Republican. Democratic support rose three percentage points since Emerson’s June survey, while Republican support increased two points.
Women favored the Democratic candidate by 27 points, according to Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball, making them the principal driver of the party’s advantage. Men also favored Democrats, but by a narrower five-point margin.
The result is more favorable for Democrats than other recent measurements. Decision Desk HQ’s national average placed Democrats approximately four points ahead, while pollster Nate Silver’s July 22 average showed a 6.1-point Democratic lead. Silver noted that the advantage had declined from a June peak of 7.1 points.
Generic-ballot surveys measure national voter preferences rather than individual congressional races. Their usefulness is limited by district boundaries, candidate quality, turnout and mid-cycle redistricting.
Decision Desk HQ currently gives Democrats a narrow advantage in the House contest, while Republicans remain slightly favored to retain the Senate. The Emerson poll surveyed 1,100 likely voters July 19-20 and reported a 2.9-point credibility interval.
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