Washington, DC — The U.S. murder rate fell sharply in 2025, reaching its lowest level since 1900, according to new data reviewed by Axios and compiled by the Council on Criminal Justice.
The report found that murders dropped 21 percent last year across 35 large U.S. cities, marking the largest one-year decline ever recorded. Based on the data sample, researchers project a national homicide rate of about 4.0 per 100,000 residents once final FBI figures are released later this year. That would place the rate below levels seen throughout much of the 20th century.
Overall crime trends also showed broad declines. Of 13 major offense categories tracked, 11 were lower in 2025 than in 2024. Nine crimes fell by 10 percent or more, including robbery and gun assaults, which declined by 23 percent and 22 percent respectively. Aggravated assaults dropped 9 percent. Drug-related offenses were the lone category to increase, rising 7 percent.
The findings come as President Trump continues to frame himself as a law-and-order leader, crediting federal crackdowns and National Guard deployments in some cities. However, violent crime had already fallen to a two-decade low in the final year of the Biden administration, complicating claims about the direct impact of Trump-era policies.
CCJ President Adam Gelb cautioned that multiple factors are likely contributing to the decline, including changes in policing strategies, technology, economic conditions, and broader social shifts. Of the 35 cities analyzed, 31 reported fewer homicides, with especially steep drops in Denver, Washington, DC, and Omaha.
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