Cook Political Report Shifts Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to “Toss Up” as Harris Gains Ground

The Cook Political Report has updated its ratings for Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, shifting all three from “lean Republican” to “Toss Up” as Vice President Kamala Harris narrows the polling gap with former President Donald Trump. These states, previously favoring Republicans when President Biden was still in the race, have become highly competitive as Harris gains momentum.

Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter explained the shift, noting that Democrats are more united and energized, while Trump’s campaign has faced setbacks. Walter highlighted that Trump’s leads in key battleground states have shrunk significantly, with his advantage in Georgia dropping from 5.9 points to just 1 point, and in Arizona from 5.5 points to 1.9.

This change follows similar updates from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which also moved Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Georgia toward Harris. Republicans argue that Harris’s current momentum may be temporary, with challenges ahead as the campaign progresses. Walter concluded that while Democrats are in a better position now, the race remains a close contest.

Finally, MBFC’s latest simulation shows Harris winning the election nearly 90% of the time.