Austin, Texas — The Cook Political Report shifted Texas’s U.S. Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” after Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, signaling growing concern among analysts about Republican vulnerabilities in the general election.
Paxton, who secured a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, defeated Cornyn by a wide margin Tuesday after a bitter and expensive primary battle that exposed deep divisions within the Republican Party.
Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor argued Paxton enters the general election carrying significant political baggage, including past bribery allegations, impeachment proceedings, ethics controversies, and public scrutiny surrounding his personal life. While Paxton was acquitted in his 2023 impeachment trial, Democrats are expected to heavily target those issues during the campaign.
Democratic nominee James Talarico is also expected to benefit from stronger fundraising and hopes to attract moderate Republicans and independents uneasy with Paxton’s hardline conservatism and controversies.
However, analysts noted Democrats still face a difficult path in Texas, where Republicans continue to dominate statewide elections. Talarico’s more progressive positions on cultural issues could also create challenges with swing voters and moderate conservatives.
Despite the rating shift, Republicans remain favored to hold the seat, though the race is now expected to draw significantly more national attention and campaign spending.
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