The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that US debt will climb from 125% to 143% of GDP by 2030, surpassing both Italy and Greece. The projections follow sweeping tax cuts and defense spending approved under President Donald Trump’s administration. By contrast, Italy’s debt is expected to hold near 137%, and Greece’s ratio could decline from 146% to 130%.
Analysts told the Financial Times that Washington’s widening deficit—projected to exceed 7% of GDP annually—contrasts sharply with Europe’s post-crisis austerity. Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” passed this summer, cut federal taxes and expanded military spending, including plans for a proposed $1 trillion “golden dome” defense shield.
Economists such as Mahmood Pradhan of Amundi and James Knightley of ING described the US trend as “symbolic,” noting that persistent deficits may challenge long-term stability even as growth remains stronger than Europe’s. Italy and Greece have pledged to maintain budget surpluses to avoid renewed fiscal turmoil.
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