TRENTON, NJ — Prediction markets once again proved more accurate than traditional polling in forecasting Tuesday’s New Jersey gubernatorial election, correctly anticipating Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s decisive 13-point victory over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
While opinion polls showed the race as a toss-up — with the final pre-election survey giving Sherrill just a one-point edge — traders on prediction markets like Kalshi had long maintained high confidence in her win. Since April, Kalshi participants had consistently priced Sherrill’s victory at 80 cents on the dollar or higher, signaling an 80% probability of success.
In the end, Sherrill’s margin far exceeded expectations, delivering Democrats a comfortable victory and further validating market-based forecasting models that outperformed polls during both this race and last year’s presidential election.
Analysts noted that crypto investors may have played a role in Sherrill’s strong showing, as she was rated “strongly pro-crypto” by advocacy group Stand With Crypto, which held large voter rallies in her support.
Unlike opinion polls that measure voter intent, prediction markets reflect the confidence of participants betting real money on an outcome. However, experts caution that global participation can skew results when bettors aren’t local to the election.
Sources:
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Kalshi – Unrated
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