Claim: White House trade adviser Peter Navarro claimed that tariffs announced by former President Donald Trump could raise $6 trillion to $7 trillion in federal revenue over 10 years, helping to fund tax cuts and debt reduction.
Reasoning: Multiple independent economic analyses challenge Navarro’s projection as significantly exaggerated. The Tax Policy Center, Tax Foundation, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Yale’s Budget Lab, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model all estimate projected revenue from Trump’s announced tariffs to be between $2 trillion and $4.6 trillion over 10 years—well short of Navarro’s figures. These analyses also account for dynamic economic effects such as reduced GDP, retaliatory tariffs, and decreased imports, which further lower potential revenues. Additionally, Navarro’s assertion that tariffs are paid by “foreigners” is misleading, as the costs are largely borne by U.S. importers and often passed on to consumers.
Fact or Fiction? Fiction. Economic evidence does not support Navarro’s claim that Trump’s tariffs would generate $6–$7 trillion over 10 years.
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