Ukraine Is Doubling Its Army, While Russia Scrapes The Barrel For Reinforcements

Russia paused its offensive in Ukraine in recent days in order to rush in reinforcements and rebuild shattered units.

The problem, for the Kremlin, is that Ukraine is doing the same—and potentially to much greater effect. As the wider war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, the Russian army might be able to restore some of the combat power it has lost to poor planning, poorer execution and heroic resistance by the Ukrainian armed services.

But Ukraine almost certainly can double its fighting strength.

That mobilization imbalance, the consequence of strong foreign support for Kyiv, the natural logistical advantages any defender enjoys against an attacker and—most importantly—Ukrainians’ incredible determination to fight, has led one analyst to a perhaps surprising conclusion.

Russia “can’t win this war,” wrote Tom Cooper, an author and expert on the Russian military.

The Russian army built up a force of nearly 200,000 troops with thousands of armored vehicles before launching its assault on southern, eastern and northern Ukraine on the night of Feb. 23.

The invasion force encountered stiff resistance. Not only from the 145,000-person regular Ukrainian army, but also local territorial defense forces and even everyday people who improvised weaponry or found other ways to slow the Russians. Digging ditches. Destroying bridges. Texting Ukrainian artillery units with the locations of approaching Russian tanks.

As the war enters its fourth week, the Russian offensive has stalled. And the scale of Russian losses is becoming clear. The Kremlin on March 2 copped to losing fewer than 500 troops killed in action and another 1,500 wounded. The Ukrainian defense ministry a few days ago posited a much higher total: a combined 12,000 Russians “lost”—presumably meaning killed, wounded or captured.

The U.S. Defense Department’s own tally falls between these extremes. The Pentagon on March 8 estimated the Russians had suffered between 2,000 and 4,000 KIAs.

In any event, thousands of fatalities over a period of two or three weeks in a force of 200,000 is unsustainable. There surely are many wounded for every dead. Captives likely number in the hundreds.