New York, New York — The world is now expected to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold established under the Paris climate agreement, according to a new United Nations report that shifts attention toward limiting how far temperatures rise and eventually bringing them back down.
The United Nations Environment Programme said global temperatures are likely to cross 1.5°C above preindustrial levels within the next few years. Earth is already about 1.4°C warmer when measured using a 20-year average.
Under current government policies, UNEP projects warming of about 2.6°C by 2100. Even under an optimistic scenario involving aggressive emissions cuts, temperatures could peak around 1.8°C near mid-century.
The report describes a strategy known as “overshoot,” in which temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C before declining later in the century through steep reductions in fossil-fuel emissions and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Scientists stressed that exceeding 1.5°C does not mean climate action becomes pointless. Each additional fraction of a degree is associated with greater risks from extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, food shortages and ecosystem loss.
The report also warns that prolonged warming increases the risk of irreversible tipping points involving major ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and Atlantic Ocean circulation.
UN officials said adaptation will become increasingly important because some climate impacts can no longer be avoided.
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