A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim margin among early voters in key swing states. Trump secured 48% of the early vote, while Harris garnered 47%, with 5% undecided or supporting other candidates. Nationally, Harris holds an 8-point lead over Trump among early voters, with 51% compared to Trump’s 43%. However, Trump leads by 2 points in the battleground states overall, polling at 48% to Harris’s 46%.
As the race tightens with less than a month to Election Day, both candidates focus heavily on Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate shows Harris with a 3-point national lead over Trump, while the Harvard poll indicates a narrower 1-point lead for Harris among registered voters.
The poll, conducted from October 11-13, surveyed 3,145 registered voters, including 898 from swing states, with a margin of error of ±1.8 percentage points.
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