A new study published Wednesday in Nature has found that the Earth’s ability to store carbon dioxide underground is dramatically lower than previous estimates, raising doubts about carbon capture’s role in fighting climate change. Researchers concluded that realistic global storage capacity is ten times smaller than once thought, limiting its impact to just a 0.7°C reduction in warming.
Lead author Matthew Gidden of the University of Maryland said carbon storage is “a limited tool,” emphasizing the urgent need to reduce emissions. The findings challenge long-standing assumptions used in climate models, including those underpinning the 2015 Paris Agreement’s targets.
The study ruled out many geological formations due to leakage risks, seismic activity, or groundwater contamination concerns. Co-author Alexandre Koberle said the industry’s prior estimates “were never systematically challenged” and called for more targeted deployment in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation or cement.
Industry advocates pushed back. Jessie Stolark of the Carbon Capture Coalition said carbon capture is “not optional” in addressing global warming and pointed to promising developments in basalt mineralization. But critics like Rob Jackson of the Global Carbon Project warned that society may simply be unwilling to pay for large-scale carbon removal.
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