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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Republican lawmakers are sounding alarms over new indicators that the 2026 midterm elections could threaten their control of the House and shrink their Senate majority. The off-year elections held on November 4 in New Jersey, Virginia, and several local areas sent what GOP senators describe as a “wake-up call,” highlighting growing voter frustration with health care costs, rising premiums, and persistent inflation.

Polling averages compiled by Decision Desk HQ show President Donald Trump’s approval rating slipping to 41.9 percent, with disapproval rising to 55.7 percent. Democrats now hold their largest generic congressional ballot lead of the election cycle, up 46.8 percent to 41.4 percent. GOP lawmakers warn that if these trends continue into early 2026, the party may face steep losses in competitive states and districts.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina cautioned that Republicans must address health care and cost-of-living concerns quickly, saying that failure to do so would create “major headwinds” next year. Republicans are increasingly concerned about losing the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson holds a narrow 219–213 majority.

Redistricting battles add further instability. A judicial panel recently struck down a GOP-favored House map in Texas, though Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay. Democrats may gain as many as six seats through new maps in California and Utah.

Strategists from both parties agree the landscape is unusually fluid. Republicans see potential pickups in Michigan and Georgia, while Democrats are targeting GOP seats in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio as the midterm field takes shape.


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