High Voter Engagement Predicted for Upcoming Presidential Election

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As the presidential election draws near, a Gallup survey indicates that 71% of Americans are giving “quite a lot” of thought to it, suggesting a high voter turnout on November 5. This level of engagement is comparable to the 2008 and 2020 elections, which saw significant turnouts, with the latter reaching a 67% turnout rate. The current focus on the election surpasses that of the 2000, 2004, and 2012 cycles, where the average turnout was 58%.

Todd Belt from The George Washington University notes the correlation between Gallup’s findings and actual voter turnout data. The heightened attention is attributed to the extensive coverage of the election, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remaining in the spotlight due to Trump’s ongoing court cases.

Despite potential voter fatigue, Belt anticipates a turnout close to 2020’s historic high. Unique factors of this election, such as Trump’s legal issues, concerns over Biden’s age, third-party candidates, and the rematch dynamic, add to its distinctiveness. Gallup reports high levels of thought given to the election among both Democrats (84%) and Republicans (78%).

Belt suggests that early attention could benefit Biden, as incumbents need to mobilize and expand their electoral coalition. With the economy as a primary concern for voters, both parties will also focus on subsidiary issues like abortion and immigration. Ultimately, the candidates’ personalities may sway undecided voters in the final days before the election.