After a period of momentum, Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing her lead narrow against Donald Trump as recent polls show a shift toward the former president. Although Harris initially gained traction following President Biden’s exit from the race, her advantage has slipped in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Polling from Decision Desk HQ shows Harris losing 4 percentage points in the past month, and Trump has closed gaps in several critical states.
While some Democratic strategists have expressed concern over the tightening race, Harris’ campaign remains confident, downplaying public poll fluctuations. Senior adviser David Plouffe dismissed some polls as unreliable, emphasizing the closeness of the contest. Similarly, Nate Silver and other experts have noted that the race remains in the 50/50 range.
Despite Harris’ slippage in favorability ratings—falling from a positive net impression to a more negative one—her campaign is focusing on turnout in the final weeks. Meanwhile, betting markets now give Trump a slight edge, though Harris maintains a national lead in some polls, including a recent Marist survey showing her ahead 52% to 47%.
Both candidates are preparing for a tight finish, with Princeton professor Julian Zelizer noting that ground game and voter turnout will likely determine the outcome.
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