WASHINGTON, D.C. — Pollster Frank Luntz warned Monday that President Donald Trump is pursuing a “very dangerous strategy” by making himself a central figure in the 2026 midterms as Republicans try to motivate voters who backed him in presidential elections.
Luntz told CNN that Trump’s challenge is recreating his presidential-year turnout coalition without simultaneously energizing voters who strongly oppose him. “There are more people who oppose Donald Trump who are planning to vote than those who support him,” he said.
That concern is reflected in CNN’s latest national polling. Trump’s approval rating stands at 33%, his lowest level in CNN polling across either term. Forty-four percent of voters said their midterm vote would be intended to oppose Trump, compared with 19% who said it would express support for him. Democrats led Republicans 49% to 41% on the generic congressional ballot.
Luntz emphasized that the political environment differs from 2024, citing voter frustration with affordability, the Iran war and Trump’s confrontational style. He described Hispanic voters, younger voters and male union members as particularly important parts of the Republican coalition.
Still, Luntz said stronger turnout among Trump supporters could improve Republican prospects, underscoring that midterm participation—not presidential-election history—will ultimately determine results.
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