Washington, D.C. — Democrats hold a 14-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterms, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll reported by The Hill. The survey found 55 percent of registered voters would choose a Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 41 percent who would back a Republican.
The shift reflects substantial movement among independent voters. Democrats lead that group by 33 points, with 61 percent favoring a Democratic candidate and just 28 percent opting for a Republican. The poll also shows erosion in GOP support among voters who backed former President Trump in 2024. While 96 percent of Kamala Harris’s 2024 supporters say they would back Democratic congressional candidates, only 88 percent of Trump’s backers say they would vote for a Republican, and 10 percent say they would now vote Democratic.
The numbers represent a dramatic change from November 2024, when the two parties were tied at 48 percent. Democrats have not held a comparable advantage since June 2022, when they led by seven points.
The poll followed a strong 2025 election cycle for Democrats, who won key down-ballot races by focusing heavily on affordability concerns. The survey found that 57 percent of Americans want Trump’s top priority to be lowering prices, far outpacing immigration, crime, and foreign policy concerns.
The survey of 1,443 adults, including 1,291 registered voters, was conducted November 10–13 and carries a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
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