Washington, DC — The Cook Political Report has shifted 18 U.S. House races in Democrats’ favor, signaling mounting challenges for Republicans as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
In its latest update released Thursday, the nonpartisan election handicapper cited President Donald Trump’s weak polling numbers and Democrats’ recent success in special elections as key factors driving the changes. According to Cook analyst Erin Covey, Democrats now appear to have “more than enough opportunities” to reclaim the House majority this fall.
Eight Democratic-held seats were upgraded from “likely” to “solid” blue, including districts represented by Reps. Hillary Scholten in Michigan, Chris Deluzio in Pennsylvania, and Dave Min and Raul Ruiz in California. An additional 10 races shifted one category toward Democrats, leaving Republicans defending 14 of the 18 remaining toss-up seats nationwide.
Covey noted that if the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of all toss-up races to maintain control of the House. While possible, she wrote that such an outcome is becoming increasingly difficult under current political conditions.
Cook now rates 36 House districts as competitive, down from 49 at a comparable point during the 2018 midterms. Several GOP-held seats, including districts in Colorado, Florida, and Tennessee, were downgraded from “solid” to “likely” Republican. Democrats currently need just three additional seats to secure a House majority, a goal analysts say is increasingly plausible given historical midterm trends and ongoing economic backlash against the Trump administration.
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