Since 2016, pollsters have struggled to accurately measure support for Donald Trump, attributed largely to his base’s distrust of institutions and refusal to participate in surveys. Democratic pollster Paul Maslin noted, “Trump voters who don’t trust experts, don’t trust the media… also don’t trust pollsters.”
To address this, researchers adjusted methodologies in 2024, focusing on non-college-educated voters and heavily weighting demographic groups that lean Republican. Despite these efforts, Trump’s support was still undercounted by about 3 points, likely due to last-minute voter decisions, such as a surge after Joe Rogan’s endorsement in the campaign’s final week.
Trump ultimately swept all battleground states, aided by undecided voters breaking in his favor, a shift from historical trends. Pollster Brent Buchanan noted, “Trump benefited from undecideds,” particularly in states like Arizona and Nevada, where he held comfortable leads.
While some pollsters believe Trump-specific issues in polling may dissipate in future elections, others caution that challenges with accuracy will persist. Maslin concluded, “It’s an ongoing question. It will continue to be, and it should be.”
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