Raleigh, North Carolina — Retaliatory tariffs tied to escalating global trade disputes could erase nearly a third of North Carolina’s farm income, according to a new economic analysis commissioned by the John Locke Foundation.
The report, authored by North Carolina State University economist Jeffrey Dorfman, estimates that tariffs imposed by major U.S. trading partners in response to President Donald Trump’s trade policies could cost North Carolina farmers roughly $695 million. That figure represents about one-third of the state’s average annual net farm income.
Beyond direct losses to farmers, Dorfman projects broader economic damage. The contraction could result in approximately 8,000 lost jobs, both within agriculture and across related industries, with rural communities bearing the brunt of the impact. When indirect effects are included, total economic losses could reach $1.9 billion, or more than 2% of North Carolina’s gross state product.
North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler cautioned that tariffs can be difficult to evaluate, noting they are often used as negotiating tools. He acknowledged, however, that prolonged trade wars tend to inflict short-term harm. North Carolina ranks among the nation’s top agricultural producers, particularly in poultry and hog farming, and relies heavily on export markets.
The report also highlights vulnerability in the soybean sector. Although most North Carolina soybeans are used domestically for animal feed, reduced foreign demand—particularly from China—has driven down prices nationwide. Dorfman concluded that while farmers may seek new markets or shift focus domestically, those steps are unlikely to offset the near-term damage caused by sustained tariff retaliation.
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