A New York Times/Siena College survey indicates that nearly a quarter (24%) of former President Trump’s supporters would oppose his Republican nomination for the 2024 presidency if he is convicted of a crime. Despite this, a significant majority (70%) believe he should remain the nominee regardless of any potential conviction. The survey, conducted among 1,016 registered voters between December 10-14, reflects the divided opinions among Trump’s voter base.
Trump, who leads the GOP primary field, has been vocal on his platform, Truth Social, criticizing legal officials handling his cases and urging his followers to do the same. He asserts that the prosecutions are politically motivated attempts to derail his campaign.
Regarding the likelihood of Trump’s conviction in his federal election subversion trial, 53% of respondents believe it’s unlikely, while 35% think a conviction is likely. Among Trump’s supporters, 61% deem a conviction unlikely, whereas about a quarter (26%) consider it likely. Furthermore, 20% of self-identified Trump supporters feel he should face prison if found guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.
Notably, the poll reveals a skepticism among Trump’s base about the fairness of his trial, with many believing the charges against him are politically driven. The survey’s margin of error is 3.5 percentage points for registered voters.
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