According to a poll released on Friday by the Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) at the University of California, Berkeley, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican candidate Steve Garvey are in a statistical tie in California’s nonpartisan Senate primary. Garvey had 27 percent support, while Schiff had 25 percent. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) came in third with 19 percent, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) trailed with just 8 percent. The top two vote-getters in the nonpartisan primary will advance to a runoff in November, regardless of party affiliation, to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) vacancy, which is currently being filled by temporary appointee Sen. Laphonza Butler (D).
Schiff, who has been leading in other polling over the last few weeks, has appeared to try to elevate Garvey. Spectators say that a Democrat-Republican showdown would be easier for Schiff to win than a battle between lawmakers in the same party. The IGS poll notes a “large increase” in support for Garvey over the last several weeks, and he fares even better in the partial-term race on the California ballot.
Schiff, Porter, Garvey, and Lee are running for both a full term in the Senate that starts in January 2025 and a partial term to take over from Butler between this November and the start of the next term. According to the Berkeley IGS poll, Garvey has the lead in the partial-term race, with 29 percent to Schiff’s 23 percent, followed by Porter at 20 percent. This boost appears to be due to fewer Republican names on the partial-term ballot compared to the full-term ballot, according to the poll.
The primary election in California is seeing notably low turnout, just days before Super Tuesday. Data indicates that it’s predominantly older Californians casting ballots at this point. The IGS poll found that nearly two-thirds of the likely electorate were 50 or older, tripling the number of voters under 40. The poll release reads, “Garvey is the chief beneficiary in a low turnout election scenario, as he holds a huge advantage over the field among fellow Republicans, and both he and Schiff are the two most preferred candidates among older voters, whites, and homeowners.”
The poll was conducted from Feb. 22-27 among 6,536 California registered voters, of which 3,304 had already voted or were likely to vote. The estimated sampling error is approximately plus or minus 2 percentage points.