White House tried, and failed, to persuade Manchin to make another Senate run

Multiple West Wing aides, including senior counselor Steve Ricchetti, and some outside Biden allies talked with the West Virginia Democrat, according to two White House officials and another adviser who were granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss the conversations. Their pitch to Manchin was that, while a reelection bid in a deep-red state would be difficult, he had a path to victory.

They failed to convince him to run.

On Thursday, the senator didn’t just announce that he would not campaign for a third term but also openly toyed with the idea of launching a third-party presidential bid, saying he would be “traveling the country and speaking out, to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle, and bring Americans together.”

The pronouncement was a blow for Senate Democrats, whose majority is already extremely narrow. A White House official said the Biden team’s attempts to get Manchin to run again were done with an eye on keeping control of the Senate given that reality.

At the same time, the president’s team is facing an already tricky path to reelection itself and Manchin has not foreclosed the possibility of running for the White House.

Manchin is just the latest politician to join the list of those either running for president as an independent or third-party candidate, or considering it. Though new polling suggests that Robert F. Kennedy Jr would largely hurt former President Donald Trump, there has been widespread fear across the Democratic Party that more liberal candidates such as Cornel West and Jill Stein could siphon votes away from Biden. Several Democrats, including people close to the president, concede that Manchin could pull away some moderate and center-left votes from Biden, too.

“Any third-party, quote-un-quote unity ticket, a ticket that runs to the middle, will cut into the Biden coalition,” said Rahna Epting, executive director of the liberal group MoveOn. “A lot of the folks that turned out for Joe Biden and against former President Donald Trump, a good portion of those could be persuaded to vote for a Joe Manchin ticket.”

Manchin’s political future has been the topic of intense interest over the past few years as he’s increasingly distanced himself from Biden and his own party. In July, the senator traveled to the early primary state of New Hampshire for an event with No Labels, a centrist organization that has floated a plan to launch a third-party presidential ticket. He also spoke on a call with the group.

The No Labels project, which has won ballot access in a number of states, has sparked backlash among Democrats, who fear it could spoil Biden’s chances for reelection. The Biden team’s posture has, so far, been to largely ignore the organization. Privately, they’ve expressed concerns that a fractured field would largely benefit Trump, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.

“In general, third-party candidates draw from the president,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster for Biden’s campaign in 2020. But, she explained that when it comes to Manchin, the extent to which he’ll impact Biden depends on “how he runs” and whether he can get onto the ballot.