The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday labeled the Trump administration’s trade policies a “crisis,” warning that global commerce could worsen further if tensions escalate.
WTO economists downgraded their 2025 projections for global merchandise trade, forecasting a 0.2% decline in volume—nearly 3 percentage points lower than in a low-tariff scenario. The revision was driven largely by revised North American figures, where exports are expected to fall by 12.6% and imports by 9.6%.
“The situation deteriorating could have even worse consequences,” said WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa. He highlighted the unintended effects of tariffs and the role of uncertainty in weakening economic activity.
President Trump has imposed 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports, and new tariffs are planned for Mexico and Canada. Though a 90-day pause has delayed implementation of broader tariffs, the WTO warned the uncertainty alone is already dragging down growth.
The WTO also revised services trade projections downward and cautioned that vulnerable economies would suffer most.
Sources
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