The Department of Energy drew attention Saturday by invoking a “Simpsons” meme to promote President Donald Trump’s push for expanded domestic oil drilling — but new data suggests U.S. crude production may decline slightly next year despite the administration’s rhetoric.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. oil output is expected to average 13.33 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from 13.46 million bpd this year. If realized, this would mark the first year-over-year drop in over a decade, excluding the 2020 pandemic disruption.
S&P Vice President Jim Burkhard called it a possible “pivot point for the oil market,” noting that much depends on economic growth and global energy demand amid ongoing trade tensions.
Trump has promised to “unleash” U.S. energy, and tariff rollbacks with China — announced Monday — briefly lifted oil prices, with WTI crude jumping 4% to $63.46 a barrel.
Still, S&P lowered its global oil demand forecast for the year to 750,000 bpd, down from 1.25 million, citing economic concerns.
While shale production can respond relatively quickly to price shifts, S&P noted that offshore and long-lead projects are less nimble, and market conditions are shifting rapidly.
The International Energy Agency is set to release a new supply-demand outlook Thursday that may further clarify global expectations.
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