A survey published Sunday indicates potential complications for ex-President Donald Trump as he faces a criminal trial in Manhattan over a hush money case.
Trump, who is widely seen as the Republican presidential candidate for 2024, made history last month by becoming the first ex-president in U.S. history to face a criminal trial. After an inquiry led by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, Trump was charged in March 2023 with 34 counts of allegedly tampering with business records related to hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential run. Daniels claims to have had a relationship with Trump in 2006, a claim he has refuted. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges, asserting that the case is politically driven.
Despite Trump’s legal issues, which include three other criminal charges—all of which he has pleaded not guilty to—the polls show a close race between the ex-president and his probable opponent in November, incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden.
However, a conviction for Trump could alter this scenario. An ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted by Langer Research Associates from April 25 to 30 and published on Sunday, revealed that 80 percent of Trump’s supporters would continue to back him even if he was found guilty of a felony in the hush money case. Conversely, 20 percent of his supporters would either rethink their support (16 percent) or withdraw it entirely (4 percent).
The poll’s subgroup of Trump supporters consisted of 937 adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4. The national sample size was 2,260 adults, with a full sample margin of error of 2 percentage points. Of the national sample, 31 percent identified as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans, and 28 percent as independents.
Newsweek sought comments from the campaigns of Trump and Biden, as well as from political experts.
Meanwhile, the poll showed varying results in a head-to-head between Trump and Biden, depending on how the adults surveyed identified themselves.
Among all adults surveyed, excluding those who said they wouldn’t vote, Trump received 46 percent support while Biden received 44 percent. However, among registered and likely voters, Biden led Trump. Biden received 46 percent support from registered voters and 49 percent from likely voters, while Trump received 45 percent from both groups.
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