Donald Trump exceeded polling expectations for the third consecutive election, winning major battleground states and potentially the popular vote against Vice President Harris. Polls had predicted a close race, but Trump showed strong results even in traditionally blue states, further shaking public confidence in polling reliability.
Pollster David Paleologos noted that the Electoral College magnifies close wins in key states, creating a larger appearance of Trump’s victory. Polling outcomes in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were close to predictions, though Trump still edged Harris out in narrow margins. Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling praised improvements made by pollsters since 2020, yet acknowledged Trump’s consistent over-performance.
The polling industry has adjusted methods since prior misses, factoring in educational background and attempting to reach diverse voter groups more effectively. Yet, challenges remain. Polling missed improvements in Trump’s appeal among young voters and Latinos. Additionally, turnout among Trump’s base exceeded expectations, a factor Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said was hard to capture accurately.
John Cluverius of the University of Massachusetts Lowell highlighted the high cost and difficulty of polling, particularly in reaching young voters. He emphasized the need for transparency and realism in polling, suggesting future improvements are necessary but challenging to implement.
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