New polls from the New York Times/Siena College show former President Donald Trump leading in five of six battleground states among likely voters, with President Joe Biden leading in Michigan. Trump’s strength is attributed to gains among young, Black, and Hispanic voters.
Interestingly, despite Biden’s struggle at the top of the ticket, Democratic candidates lead in all four tested states for the U.S. Senate races: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. This suggests a phenomenon of ticket splitting, where voters support candidates from different parties in the same election.
In Nevada, Trump led by 12 points among registered voters, but Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen led her likely Republican challenger by 2 points. Remarkably, 28% of Trump’s Hispanic supporters and 26% of his young supporters back Rosen.
The polls also reveal a significant split between registered and likely voters in Michigan. While Trump led by 7 points among registered voters, Biden had a 1-point lead among likely voters.
Among Middle East, North African, or Muslim voters, Trump led 57-25. Those who voted in the 2020 election reported backing Biden by a similar but opposite margin, 56-35. When asked about their most important issue in the race, around 70% cited foreign policy or the war in the Gaza Strip.
These results suggest that while Biden may be struggling among certain demographics, these voters haven’t yet fully abandoned Democrats, indicating potential room for improvement.
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