Washington, District of Columbia — American consumers absorbed nearly the full financial impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs last year, according to a new study analyzing millions of U.S. import transactions.
The study, released by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, examined shipment-level data covering more than 25 million transactions and concluded that Americans paid roughly 96 percent of the costs generated by Trump’s tariffs. Importing firms absorbed only about 4 percent of the burden, while the remaining costs were passed directly to U.S. buyers through higher prices. At the same time, U.S. customs revenue surged by an estimated $200 billion.
Researchers said companies were often able to shift tariff costs because they had alternative markets outside the United States or faced practical limits on switching suppliers quickly. The findings challenge claims that foreign exporters primarily bear the cost of U.S. import taxes.
Trump imposed sweeping tariffs last April, including a baseline 10 percent levy on nearly all imports, with higher rates targeting countries such as China and sectors including steel, aluminum, and auto parts. He later raised tariffs on imports from Brazil and India to 50 percent, though some food-related levies on Brazil were later reversed.
The president has continued to threaten new tariffs tied to foreign policy disputes, including potential penalties on several European countries over Greenland. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in December that tariffs are responsible for “most” of the recent inflation overshoot, though he characterized the impact as largely a one-time price increase. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing the administration’s legal justification for the tariffs.
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