A new Yale University study finds that Elon Musk’s political activity may have significantly hurt Tesla’s U.S. sales, costing the company between 1 million and 1.26 million vehicles since late 2022. Researchers attribute the drop to Musk’s increasingly partisan behavior, including his purchase of Twitter (now X) and public alignment with Donald Trump and other conservative figures.
The study examined sales data between October 2022 and April 2025, identifying a sharp decline in Tesla sales in Democratic-leaning counties that was not explained by aging vehicle models or market competition. Co-author Kenneth Gillingham, a Yale environmental and energy economics professor, said Tesla “had plans with sales even above our counterfactual sales impacts” before growth stalled.
The paper estimated that without Musk’s political polarization, Tesla’s monthly U.S. sales could have been 150% higher by early 2025. Industry experts, however, told Axios they remain skeptical, noting that Tesla’s 2023 peak of roughly 671,000 units sold makes the study’s findings unusually large.
Despite the decline in U.S. demand, Tesla recently reported record global deliveries, as customers sought to take advantage of expiring federal tax credits.
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