Senate Democrats in battleground states are polling better than President Biden, suggesting a potential increase in ticket-splitting in the November election. Split-ticket voting, once common, has declined due to political polarization. However, Democratic Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are performing well, even as Biden trails behind Trump.
Matt Taglia of Emerson College Polling noted, “This is more split-ticket voting than we would traditionally see, but there’s also a higher undecided factor than we would normally see.” Historical data shows a decline in split-ticket voting, with notable exceptions like Maine in 2020.
Current polls indicate Democratic Senate candidates lead in several key states. For instance, a CBS News/YouGov poll showed Arizona’s Rep. Ruben Gallego ahead of Kari Lake, while Biden trailed Trump by 5 points. Similarly, Pennsylvania’s Sen. Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick, though Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the same state.
The trend is seen in other states, such as Nevada, where Sen. Jacky Rosen leads despite Biden’s significant deficit. Analysts attribute this to various factors, including candidate name recognition and fundraising capabilities. Republican strategist Alex Zdan pointed out that Democratic Senate candidates might benefit from voters wanting party control of Congress, despite reservations about Biden.
This polling disparity highlights the unique dynamics of the upcoming election, with Democratic Senate candidates potentially helping Biden by energizing the voter base.
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