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A new Morning Consult poll shows voters would place more blame on Republicans than Democrats if the government shuts down on Oct. 1.

According to the survey, 45% of voters say they would hold Republicans in Congress responsible, compared with 32% who would fault Democrats. Independent voters also leaned toward blaming Republicans, 41% to 24%. Notably, one-third of GOP voters said their own party would be at fault, compared with just 22% of Democrats who would blame their side.

Nearly half of respondents (48%) said a shutdown is at least “somewhat likely,” a significant jump from 36% in March. The findings suggest Republicans, who control Congress, face higher political risk as negotiations stall ahead of the deadline.

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