The nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) shifted the North Carolina gubernatorial race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” citing strong fundraising by the GOP candidate. The race features Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, vying to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.
Despite Democrats comprising only 34% of the state’s 7.4 million registered voters, North Carolina has historically leaned Democratic in gubernatorial elections, with only three Republicans elected in the last century. Initially, CPR rated the race as “Lean Democrat” due to the Democratic success in statewide races and Robinson’s controversial remarks labeled as antisemitic, anti-women, and anti-LGBTQ.
Robinson’s campaign has raised over $10.5 million, making him potentially the highest-funded Republican gubernatorial nominee in the state’s history. CPR polling shows the race tied, with each candidate receiving 37% support and 17% of voters undecided. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average also shows a tight race, with Stein at 40.5% and Robinson at 40.2%.
Robinson, an ally of former President Trump, faces scrutiny for his divisive comments on LGBTQ issues, civil rights, and women’s issues. CPR notes the outcome may hinge on whether these comments alienate suburban swing voters, especially women in the Research Triangle and Charlotte areas.
Stein’s campaign manager emphasized the closeness of the race, stating, “Josh is working hard to earn every single vote,” highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates’ visions for North Carolina.
A spokesperson for Robinson’s campaign claimed his message resonates with voters across demographics, criticizing Democrats for policies leading to “open borders, crippling inflation, and rising crime.”
Robinson aims to become North Carolina’s first Black governor, while Stein hopes to be the state’s first Jewish governor.
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