Public school enrollment is falling across the United States, with millions fewer students expected over the next five years, raising financial risks and the possibility of more district closures.
Between fall 2019 and fall 2023, enrollment dropped 2.5%, removing more than a million children from the K-12 system. The National Center for Education Statistics projects enrollment will shrink from 51 million in 2019 to 47 million by 2031. Experts attribute the decline to falling U.S. birth rates, interstate migration, and growing alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools.
The U.S. fertility rate has dropped 2% annually since 2014, with a 3% decline in 2022 marking a historic low. States like California and New York are losing families to more affordable states, while new education savings accounts and voucher programs are drawing students away from public schools.
Funding tied to enrollment has already triggered closures—98 schools in 15 states closed during the 2023-24 year, according to Reason Foundation. Districts are also cutting classes and staff, leading to larger class sizes and reduced extracurricular programs.
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