Manchin throws wrench into budget, infrastructure talks

But more urgently, Manchin’s $1.5 trillion ceiling for the package — which Democrats plan to pass through the partisan budget reconciliation process that makes his vote necessary — has hamstrung negotiations needed to unlock progressive support for a separate bipartisan infrastructure bill.

That Senate-passed infrastructure measure, which Manchin helped write, is supposed to come up for a vote in the House on Thursday. But progressives plan to vote against it without assurances that Manchin and fellow centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., will support the party’s effort to pass the more comprehensive reconciliation bill. Democrats want to include in that package a host of safety net program expansions and initiatives to combat climate change — and various tax increases on wealthier households and corporations to pay for it all.

After months of confusion over what the two senators would support, Manchin confirmed Thursday that he won’t support a package larger than $1.5 trillion. He said he based that on the amount of tax increases he thought Congress could pass to reverse aspects of the 2017 GOP tax law without returning to levels that would put the United States at a global disadvantage.

“I believe in my heart that’s what we can do and what the needs we have right now [are] and what we can afford to do without basically changing our whole society to an entitlement mentality,” Manchin said.

Manchin’s $1.5 trillion price tag, which he said he communicated privately to Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer two months ago, is less than half the $3.5 trillion most Democrats support.

But Manchin is touting it as a compromise, saying he wanted to “pause” and not spend anything else on top of some $5 trillion in COVID-19 relief measures since early 2020, plus the bipartisan infrastructure bill that would allocate $550 billion in new spending over five years. Manchin says he’s concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty stemming from COVID-19 and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The $1.5 trillion topline isn’t enough to pay for everything other Democrats want to include: money for climate programs and clean energy tax incentives; subsidies for paid family and medical leave, child care, home health care, affordable housing; extensions of tax breaks to help subsidize health insurance and child care and more.

“It’s problematic,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal said. The Connecticut Democrat said he hasn’t talked to Manchin to see how flexible he is but “as the final number it certainly seems low.”

Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin seemed adamant that $1.5 trillion would not be the final number. “It will be changed,” the Illinois Democrat said.