As of Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in six national aggregate polls in the tight 2024 presidential race. Following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race on July 21, Harris has gained significant support from the Democratic Party. Polls show Harris leading Trump by margins ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics has Harris ahead by 0.5 points, while The New York Times shows her leading by 1 point. Race to the WH and FiveThirtyEight show her ahead by 1.6 and 2 points, respectively. The Silver Bulletin aggregate has Harris up by 2.5 points, the largest margin. However, The Hill shows Harris trailing Trump by 0.2 points.
Battleground states remain crucial, with Harris leading in Wisconsin but trailing slightly in Pennsylvania.
Despite national poll leads, the election will be decided by state-specific victories in the Electoral College.
Recent simulations from Media Bias Fact Check indicate Harris winning 90+% of sims.
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