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A recent Gallup poll reveals a 9-point swing in favor of Democrats, as 49% of independent voters now lean towards the party, compared to 45% favoring Republicans. This comes just weeks before the November 5 presidential election, where former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race. In Gallup’s previous poll, conducted between September 3-15, Republicans held a 5-point lead among independents. The latest poll surveyed 941 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Harris currently leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight, though battleground states remain highly competitive. Other forecasts, like RealClearPolitics, show Harris with a smaller 1.7-point lead, while Decision Desk HQ/The Hill describes the race as too close to call, giving Harris a slight edge with a 51% chance of victory.

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